The temperatures are below freezing, and the roads are frozen, which can mean only one thing: the final four NFL teams will square off this weekend to determine what Super Bowl 59 will look like.
Even though the Kansas City Chiefs are verging on a potential three-peat, it’s hard to remember a conference championship bracket that looked this impressive and competitive with each team having a case as to why they should hoist the Lombardi Trophy when the clock hits triple zeros.
Washington Commanders
It’s not surprising the only team led by a rookie at quarterback is the least favored out of all four teams to win Super Bowl 59, but you really have to give the Commanders credit.
Washington has blended toughness on defense with a modern and schematically intuitive offense that has both young talent (Dyami Brown, Bryan Robinson Jr.) and savvy veterans (Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz) with a franchise quarterback in the making holding it all together.
Say Eagles running back Saquon Barkley stumbles once or twice as Washington’s defense holds quarterback Jalen Hurts to at most 200 passing yards and less than 60 yards rushing, and Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels chips away at the Eagles defense. Kicker Zane Gonzales, after having a great day kicking, sends Washington to the big game.
Washington, in a game it is heavily favored against by either AFC team, pulls out all the stops on offense and a few trick plays as they capture their first title since 1992. This is unlikely for one reason; a rookie QB has never been to the Super Bowl, and the Commanders are the worst team out of the four on paper — but you never know.
Buffalo Bills
Anyone familiar with the NFL echo chambers and fan spaces sort of feels like it’s “Buffalo’s year.” A combination of the Chiefs looking weaker, the Bills beating a host of good opponents in the regular season and the stampeding Josh Allen MVP campaign has got Bills Mafia feeling good.
Allen has the entire Bills locker room behind him and solely him, but this Bills team also boasts a bell cow running back in James Cook and dominance on both sides of the line — this team has a clear-cut identity of physicality and attitude.
The biggest test, mentally, stands in front of Buffalo from the get-go. But say the Bills D-line punishes a dinged up Chiefs O-line and gives Allen plenty of time to hold on to the ball and kill the clock.
In New Orleans, the Bills simply ride the momentum wave and win on a field goal to put all past spirits to rest. I worry if Buffalo’s offense can avoid its past mistakes of stalling when it matters most — but if they can, who’s to say the Bills can’t win it all?
Philadelphia Eagles
With just over 48 hours until its home contest against Washington kicks off, the Philadelphia Eagles are the betting favorite to win its second ring in the 21st century. The energy around coach Nick Sirriani’s team is so palpable, it’s being measured in watts.
Signing Barkley has played out perfectly for the Eagles, as the former rival has set fire to any and all opponents. On the flipside, Philly’s D-line is straight up nasty, with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis leading the way — not to mention DPOY finalist Zach Baun.
The Eagles have been absolutely phenomenal at home this season, and will easily dispatch of a Commanders team that wasn’t supposed to be here in the first place. Hurts takes care of business and puts up a modest 225 passing yards and 50 rushing yards.
In the big game, the Eagles season ends how it began in Sao Paulo; Barkley rushing for 200 yards, as he becomes the first running back to win a Super Bowl MVP trophy since Terrell Davis. Hurts may not be the QB that Mahomes or Allen is, but he’s certainly beyond capable.
Kansas City Chiefs
Why do we keep doing this — why do we keep doubting the Chiefs? They are not nearly as dominant as they have been, but we have seen that story before and now the reigning champs have a chip on their shoulder.
The familiar faces are all back, Mahomes, coach Andy Reid, running back Isiah Pacheco, you name it. Tight end Travis Kelce may be getting up there although he is coming off a solid game, but if we’re being honest — as long as 15 is at QB, the Chiefs are fine.
Mahomes hasn’t had a signature game in a long time — why not against a team that allowed Lamar Jackson to outgain their offense? Mahomes is 3-0 against Allen and the Bills with different teammates and in different situations.
It has never been achieved, not even sniffed — no team has ever won three Super Bowls in a row. But at the end of the day, it is a team led by Mahomes.
We can’t be fully sure that he isn’t better than Brady, and with a third straight win, maybe he will be viewed as such. The outside help is very questionable, at times, but there is a reason the Chiefs are not favorites.
Gage Wellman is a reporter. Contact him at [email protected] or @GageWellmanKSTV on X.